Thorough investment research and due diligence doesn’t promise stellar performance or returns, but it can sure go a long way in averting unnecessary losses. Take this article in the last issue of Bloomberg Businessweek; a story about an asset management firm’s $4 million investment in China Agritech. The article was fun to read as it became a game of underlining with red pen the red-flags and missteps of a failed due diligence process. (How nerdy, right? And always so much easier in hindsight.) The great value of the article was the expensive lesson we, the investment community, get to hopefully learn on the cheap: conduct thorough, thoughtful, and objective due diligence on each and every company, manager, and investment opportunity.
Without developing a case-study, what are a few due diligence lessons gleaned from the article?
- Check SEC and other regulatory filings. A two minute search of China Agritech’s April 2010 10-k reveals their financials did not include auditor attestation. A reason to dig a little deeper.
- Check who’s making the investment decisions. The article as an example, a 29 year old new employee (the son/grandson of the asset management firm founders), who wears frayed khakis and rumpled shirts to work, without an investment background (but a solid masters degree in global affairs), is able to make a $4m investment on behalf of the firm. How is this even possible? Was this investment recommendation not screened by an investment committee for reasonable basis? If your managers do not have a process to screen investment recommendations, ask why while you take your money out fast.
- Know what you’re buying. An profitable environmentally friendly company that feeds China. Sounds great! The “fundamentals” may even look good but sorry, that isn’t the end of the research or due diligence. In the example of Agritech, a look at the initial SEC filing in February 2002 reveals quite clearly a shell company, warranting second looks and critical eyes to all other aspects of diligence, especially red flags.
- Guided tours are nice but not the best. Arranging a due diligence trip through the manager or company itself is not the best way to get a clean, clear, and unbiased look at operations. Good research requires a deep dig, including conversations with customers, auditors, and other relevant parties. Yes, this applies to screening managers as well.
- What are other people saying. Don’t believe everything that you read. That’s true. Yet in the investment world, there’s nothing wrong with looking around at other research and arguments that don’t mesh with yours. It will challenge your position, potentially making your argument stronger if you can objectively demonstrate the reasoning behind your position.
- Examine the big picture. Even if the water seems warm, there is nothing wrong with getting in slowly. Fundamentals are great, the company strategy is great. Does that mean it is a good idea to take a 2% position in a company who has unaudited financials and short ratio of 25%+? Risky business… why not strategize to take a 2% position, but execute over time while you further validate your investment? Sometimes it is not just what you invest in, but the strategy of how you do it that matters.